According to the latest population projections from Eurostat, the EU population is expected to decline by 11.7% between 2025 and 2100. This translates to a predicted decrease of 53.0 million people in the EU by the start of the next century.
In 2025, the EU population was estimated at 451.8 million, having resumed its growth trend in 2022, after the COVID-19 pandemic disruption in 2021.
Looking ahead, the population is projected to continue to increase over the next 3 years, peaking at 453.3 million in 2029, before gradually declining to 398.8 million by 2100.
This information comes from the population projections published by Eurostat today. The results are based on assumptions of partial convergence of EU countries’ fertility, mortality and migration patterns.
Population trends across Europe are set to diverge sharply by 2100, with 18 out of 30 countries expected to decline while 12 grow.
Latvia is projected to face the steepest drop, with a population decline of 33.9%, followed by Lithuania (33.4%), Poland(31.6%) and Greece (30.1%).
Several other countries, including Bulgaria, Croatia and Italy, are also expected to lose more than one in five people.
In contrast, smaller countries such as Luxembourg, Iceland and Malta are projected to see population growth of over 25%.
Population pyramid shows ageing population
The EU’s population pyramid for 2025 shows a society with long life expectancy, low mortality and low birth rates. The population is predominantly composed of working-age people above 50, while the shares of young people under 20 are considerably smaller.
By 2100, the pyramid shows, there is a shift towards a shrinking population, with a growing share of people in older age groups and a declining young population and that of working age.
At EU level, over the entire period between 2025 and 2100, a higher number of deaths than live births is projected, resulting in a continuous negative natural change (the difference between births and deaths).
In 2100, Germany will remain the most populous EU country followed by France and Spain
Between individual countries, the changes in the projected population structure vary considerably, both in terms of when the highest level of population will be reached and the direction and magnitude of change.
In terms of total population, Germany will remain the largest country, despite a projected decline from 83.6 million in 2025 to 74.7 in 2100.
It is followed by France with a projected total of 67.2 million in 2100 (down from 68.8 million in 2025) and Spain, which is projected to grow from 49.1 million to 49.8 million.
Despite being projected to grow substantially, Malta and Luxembourg are projected to remain the least populous countries, with both projected populations remaining under one million.
21.04.2026.
